THERE EXIST NOW A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY
FOR RUSSIA AND USA TO BREAK THE BACK OF ISIS IN SYRIA AND IRAQ AND
GAIN THE GRATITUDE OF THE WORLD.
Both Russia and the U.S. look at the
Middle East and THEY SEE THEMSELVES. The U.S. religion is
democracy; they look at the Middle East and they think: “Oh, we
can solve all those problems, give them democracy and then the
swamps of terrorism will dry up, Salafism will be gone” The US
mindset has failed in Afghanistan, in Iraq in Libya....Russia looks
and says: Democracy doesn't work in Islamic societies “we need a
strong man, there needs to be stability, or things will crumble”.
Russia knows that Karimov of Uzbekistan & Assad of Syria thoygh
secular leaders are also dictators, but “both are fighting the
Islamists” and that's what counts for Putin “We need somebody
strong”.
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I am now going to recommend a battle plan with specific objectives for each Russia and US, but first
PREAMBLE 1
Though the foreign ISIS fighters number
approx 30,000 (Saudis, Tunisians, Pakistanis, Chechens, Kossovits,
European Arabs, Jordanians, Syrians, Druzes, even a few hundred
Egyptians) neither Russia nor the US will commit ground troops
which means that both countries will use only airstrikes against
specific targets.
PREAMBLE 2
America doesn't KNOW what to do in Syria. The country has a) no oil, gas reserves or mineral deposits and b) no geopolitical strategic importance “let Russia have Syria, it is of no consequence”, but it’s very difficult for the U.S., which has been used to being the superpower, the DECIDER, being the policeman of the world - to come to the understanding that it can’t do it, that it can’t be the Decider in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria - and that’s very hard to relinquish that role to someone else, and particularly, to Russia; so they’re trying to keep everybody weak, they of course don’t want Assad to win, but they don’t want ISIS or Jaish al-Fatah to win either. Letting the swamp boil is probably what America’s policy will add up to in the end.
By contrast, Russia knows what to do in Syria: control of terrain, that is presently the key issue: how much ground is held and by WHOM. This is what matters, it is what will count at the second Vienna meeting. Putin doesn't believe that Assad will last long, but NOW is not the time for his departure, after ISIS is defeated YES.
Click to enlarge to see how crucial the issue of Control of Terrain is ... In the end it is how much land is controlled in Syria and by WHOM.
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THE BATTLE PLAN
A. RUSSIA
Russia war policy MUST be centered on what I call TRIPLE A: Aleppo + Airfield + Air strikes.
The city of Aleppo is only 5 minutes fly time from the Russian airfield at Latakia which means that they can launch 50-60 airstrikes a day. The Syrian Government forces aided by Iranian volunteers and Hezbollah must assault the city in 3 pronged fronts under the cover of continuous Russian strikes. Retaking Aleppo will of course boost Assad Government forces' prestige, but the world will know that such a victory would have been impossible without the sustained, unrelenting and accurate Russian airstrikes.
ALEPPO FOR RUSSIA
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B. USA
The US war policy MUST be centered on what I call TRIPLE R: Raqqa + Ramadi (Iraq) + Raids.
Sunni Syrian Arab battalion firing at Raqqa.
Raqqa must be freed of ISIS which will be a crushing defeat for the depraved Islamists, that's why ISIS moved a convoy of nearly 100 military vehicles packed with arms, ammunition and fighters from the eastern countryside of Raqqa to one of the terror group's bases within the city. Fortification of the group's de-facto capital in Syria comes just a day after Kurdish YPG forces backed by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes wrested control of the town of Ain Isa. The tactical victory puts ISIS' formidable rivals just 55 kilometers (about 34 miles) away from the city of Raqqa.
Kurdish Peshmarga YPG formidable, pitiless sworn enemies of ISIS
First, however, expect the fight to be long, bloody and dangerous. A significant ground force composed of Kurds aided by Sunni Arab groups of composite fighters under a sustained US airstrikes could be required to expel Islamic State fighters, who are heavily armed and well dug in, and then free the city of 200,000 people.
As much as half the city could well be flattened in the battle. Assuming the city is reoccupied the nightmarish scenario of governing & preventing revenge killings would start almost immediately.
NOW THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL FREE RAQQA?
Right now, there doesn’t seem to
be many interested in carrying out this difficult mission.
- It does not look like the Kurds are spoiling to
take the largely Arab city.
- The United States will not be sending in
significant ground forces to do the job.
- Turkey seems disinclined to send its forces
across the border to wage war, particularly given Ankara’s
hostility to most Kurdish insurgents.
- The various groups that make up the Free Syrian Army
are far too weak to take on Islamic State directly.
- In addition, the coalition
fighting against Islamic State is certainly not eager for Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad and his Iranian backers to march back
into the city.
The only option is the destruction with
heavy and sustained air stikes; but if US military advisors can
somehow consolidate an effective ground offensive, it would regain
its tarnished status as a major player in the future of Syria.
RAQQA FOR USA
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AFTERMATH
In Aleppo & Raqqa, once the shooting ends, any liberating military would quickly confront a significant infrastructure and refugee problem. This invariably would lead to the second big conundrum: the critical effort of providing an effective government.
In Aleppo & Raqqa, once the shooting ends, any liberating military would quickly confront a significant infrastructure and refugee problem. This invariably would lead to the second big conundrum: the critical effort of providing an effective government.
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