BRAVEPUTIN NOW CORNERED ... HAS TO CARRY THE FIGHT IN SYRIA AGAINST DAESH (ISIS) AND ONLY DAESH

I am reprinting my article POSTED on F/B SATURDAY OCTOBER 31, immediately after the Foreign Ministers of 15 nations met in Vienna the day before to come to a resolution to end the war in Syria.

 

BRAVE PUTIN HAS BEN CORNERED IN SYRIA

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) greets his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad upon his arrival for a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on October 21, 2015

Anyone who thought that the USA would sit with arms crossed while Russia is bombing the anti-Assad factions in Syria is deluded. The USA is militarily & economically the globe's SUPER POWER. Started to hail Russia as the saviour of the M.E. was optimistically premature. As much as I despise the Americans M.E. STRATEGIC AGENDA for the entire region, it would be foolish to ignore USA capabilities, in particular the old double standard tricks of getting the nose of camel into the tent. I expected the USA to take steps concomitant with its declared policy to support those who fight Assad and IT DID ... BRILLIANTLY by doing two very smart moves:

1. Sending US military personal with order to supposedly fire back ONLY at ISIS is a cover-up. Its troops will be deployed on the ground held by the anti-Assad factions (Free Syrian Army + Al Nusra + Agnad Al Sham). In essence, to protect them from a) being targeted by Russian airstrikes and b) being overrun by any attempts of the Syrian Government Forces to reoccupy lost grounds.
2. Announcing to give $100 millions to the Rebel Forces is a blunt message to Putin that the rebels will receive US high tech weaponry and that Russia may/will now face losses of equipment & lives.
3. The USA knows that Putin will NOT risk a prolonged campaign with mounting losses.

John Kerry with Saudi Foreign Minister Abdel Jobeir

THE US HAS IN EFFECT BACKED PUTIN INTO A CORNER.

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Putin now has only 2 choices:

1. Carry the fight ONLY against DAESH (ISIS) IN SYRIA which was the official reason for Russia's intervention; in other words the US is now forcing him to make good on his morally based principles & intentions to defeat ISIS, though the REAL Russia's REASON WAS TO PROP UP THE REGIME OF ASSAD by smashing his enemies and regaining as much lost grounds as possible or

    2. HOLD the present ground (Port & Airport facilities) and wait for the planned Syrian November 

       election. 

PUTIN HAS BEEN OUTMANEUVERED IN SYRIA ... AND THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT I FEARED, HOWEVER HE STILL HAS A FEW OPTIONS, THOUGH LIMITED, TO ANCHOR RUSSIA'S PRESENCE IN THE M.E. (refer to end paragraph entitled WHAT RUSSIA MUST DO)

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After the foreign ministers of 15 countries held an international meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Friday to resolve the years-long conflict in Syria, let's look at how does the USA vs Russia Balance Sheet in Syria/Iraq look like:

John Kerry with British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during Vienna meeting

USA

• NEUTRALIZED RUSSIA'S “KNOCK OUT PUNCH” BY ESCALATING MILITARY PRESENCE
• RUSSIA GAVE AMERICA THE COMPELLING EXCUSE FOR PUTTING BOOTS ON THE GROUND WHICH, TO DATE, HAS BEEN MISSING DESPITE ITS BEST EFFORTS TO FABRICATE ONE
  
• REBEL GROUPS ANTI-ASSAD BETTER ARMED
  
• GROUPS ASSURED OF HOLDING CONTROL OF LARGE PART OF SYRIA
  
• REGIME CHANGE SOON - ASSAD “OUT”
  
• AMERICA’S ARMS PRODUCERS AND THEIR STOOGES IN CONGRESS ALL SALIVATING WITH JOY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE PROFITS THEY WILL REAP BOTH FROM THE DESTRUCTION AND THE SUBSEQUENT REBUILDING OF SYRIA.
  
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RUSSIA

 

Meeting of 15 Foreign ministers in Vienna sponsored by Russia  to find solution to end war in Syria.

• US HAS BEEN CAUGHT “FLAT-FOOTED” BY RUSSIA’S BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN SYRIA


• RUSSIA INTERVENTION WAS NOT AN ILL-CONSIDERED, OFF THE CUFF RESPONSE BY AN ISOLATED LEADER, IT WAS INSTEAD WELL PREPARED MONTHS AHEAD
  
  
• SYRIAN ARMY LESS DEMORALIZED AND REAPED A SHORT-TERM TACTICAL ADVANTAGE - RUSSIANS SUCCESSFUL
  
• DRIVING FORCE FOR THE VIENNA MEETING - ANOTHER RUSSIAN SUCCESS
  
• FORCED A CHANGE IN THE US M.E. STRATEGY THAT INCLUDED DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO FIND A POLITICAL SOLUTION TO THE SYRIAN CONFLICT – RUSSIAN SUCCESS
• ABLE TO BRING TOGETHER REPRESENTATIVES OF US, KSA AND IRAN – YET ANOTHER SUCCESS
• DESPITE LONG AIR & MARITIME LINES TO SYRIA MANAGED TO RESUPPLY ITS FORCES - A FEATHERED IN ITS CAP
• ABILITY TO LAUNCH MILITARY CAMPAIGN FAR FROM ITS SHORES - ANOTHER FEATHERED IN ITS CAP


• PROVED TO THE WORLD THAT MILITARILY RUSSIA IS NO LONGER A PAPER-TIGER
  
  
• KERRY SPEAKING ABOUT WHAT THE US-CONTROLLED COALITION WILL AND WILL NOT ALLOW IN POST-WAR SYRIA IS MERE POSTURING
  

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Option for Russia

Military situation in the Syrian Civil War.   

Controlled by Syrian Government forces   Controlled by Kurdish forces (Rojava)   Controlled by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant   Controlled by al-Nusra Front   Controlled by Syrian opposition forces

Show the US that RUSSIA can also play the game of Opportunism and self-interest. A game which is indisputably the cornerstones of the corporatist ideology that now holds full sway in America. To this end here is:

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what Russia MUST DO Militarily and politically

 

 

 

 

Russian fighter jets over Syria

1. Continue DAESH bombing campaign in Syria
2. Convince Iran that Assad will eventually go
3. Seek China involvement by asking it to provide 10-12 Chinese fighter-bombers & supply ammunition
4. Cut off the supply line of ISIS between Iraq and Syria
5. Accept Iraq request to bomb ISIS stronghold in Iraq
6. After securing & coordinating joint agreement with US (who has 10,000 troops in Iraq)

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Conclusion

Since there is no prospect that the US will remove itself from the conflict, I would say that Russia’s direct involvement is, for the time being, preferable to it doing nothing, however unpredictable the ultimate consequences of Russia's involvement may be.

If it destroys ISIS & other Jehadists in both Syria & Iraq, Russia's intervention will have indeed STABILIZED THE WHOLE MIDDLE EAST and made it a principle stakeholder in a post-ISIS war.

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ADDENDUM

 

 

My recommendation is for RUSSIA to execute immediately a COUNTER MEASURE feasible scenario that cannot be criticized by the US which can only watch as it unfolds. My scenario involves two (2) phases: A) military solution followed by B) political compromise.

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A) MILITARY SOLUTION – phase 1

1. Pound DAESH - ONLY DAESH areas – with non-stop airstrikes
2. Sustained & coordinated OFFENSIVE by Syrian Government Army to
3. REOCCUPY all or at least most of the DAESH ground

In this scenario the Syrian government forces RECONQUER 2/3 of Syria.

Once accomplished, phase 2 start at once.

B) POLITICAL COMPROMISE – phase 2

1. Announce a new POWER SHARING CONSTITUTION which will take into account the various major ethnic groups i.e.
2. P.M. a SUNNI (pop. Majority)
3. C-in-C of armed forces a KURD (Sunni)
4. Chief of Police an Allaouite
5. Mixte cabinet Ministers
6. PRESIDENT becomes a figure head with no executive powers (Italy, India, Lebanon, others)

This new power sharing agreement will terminate the 40 year stranglehold control of Syria by the minority ALLAOUITES and ASSAD can remain a caretaker figurehead President for a short period before RETIRING.

 

Whatever happens to Assad, one thing is certain the steely grip of the minority (17%) Shia allaouites will be gone forever. Syria is 75% SUNNI ... numbers count and majority rules.

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THE TOTAL ELIMINATION OF DAESH (ISIS) IN SYRIA would satisfy BOTH USA & RUSSIA who can now claim “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED”.

1. Obama can now report to Congress that in accordance with stated US policy Assad has been clipped and is on the way out.

2. Putin can also take immense credit for having prevented the reconstruction of Syria and ensured the survival of the country's territorial integrity ... Syria would remain INTACT.

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The losers will be Israel & Iran ... with Turkey as the odd man out.